No, there isn’t just 61 packs to coincide with the 61 episodes. There are 66 instead. That’s because each specific mythic pack appears twice as rare as the rest of specific packs. We’ll take this into account by doubling numbers coming from rare and common packs.

1 Rarities’ drop rates

This time, the colors have pretty different counts for the rarities, except this time basic lands count are far more consistent. Compared to Foundations Jumpstart packs I reviewed recently, we have far less mythics here, almost in exchange for rares, while uncommons count is a fair bit higher too.

Set W U B R G C T
TLE-M 2 2 4 2 2 1 13
TLE-R 31 24 26 36 30 147
TLE-U 102 110 101 115 108 7 543
TLE-C 177 176 181 161 172 6 873
TLE-L 168 168 168 166 168 6 844
Total 480 480 480 480 480 20 2,420

1.1 Per rarity

For Mythics, it’s surely a very rare ordeal, and you only one at a time. It’s such a rare ordeal that it’s actually even lower than the average older set (15/121), but I guess at the very least it’s better than original Ixalan (15/141, that 4 is important).

For Rares, when compared to J25, we found out that all the packs that used to not give a rare (i.e. they give a mythic instead) got basically replaced with packs giving 2 rares instead. Also, red’s probability looks pretty insane here.

Rare W U B R G C T
0 1 2 2 1 6
1 15 20 18 12 18 83
2 8 2 4 12 6 32
E(R) 1.292 1 1.083 1.5 1.25 1.215
sig(R) 0.538 0.408 0.493 0.5 0.433 0.518

Combining the two rarities together, compared to J25, there’re a lot more packs with a single rare and the packs with both a rare and a mythic is far rarer, which contributes to a fair bit lower gem value of each pack. Most important to know, while red is proven to be the biggest value color, blue is just the sheer opposite.

R M W U B R G C T
1 14 20 16 10 16 76
2 8 2 4 12 6 32
1 1 2 2 1 6
1 1 1 2 2 2 7
E (R+M) 1.375 1.083 1.25 1.583 1.333 1 1.322
sig (R+M) 0.484 0.276 0.433 0.493 0.471 0.467
E (G) 29.17 23.33 28.33 33.33 28.33 40 28.6
sig (G) 11.52 7.45 12.8 12.47 12.8 12.01

Down to uncommon, the average seems to land at 4 and 5, which is a lot higher than even your play booster giving 4, to a point where two packs managed 7, something J25 didn’t record. Ultimately, the chance of an unlucky pack containing just 3 is still the exaxt same, just that this time it’s concentrated on just 2 colors, because each one decided that 1 common theme will be this unlucky.

Unc. W U B R G C T
3 4 5 9
4 18 11 11 11 2 53
5 6 12 9 8 17 52
6 1 4 5
7 1 1 2
E(R) 4.25 4.583 4.208 4.792 4.5 7 4.488
sig(R) 0.433 0.571 0.706 0.865 0.816 0.762

The shift in uncommons certainly reflects here in the commons, where 7 is now more popular of an option than 8. Well, except in black and red where’s still a strong spread from 8 up and down, while Green hates to be 8 so much it makes the most unlucky packs of 9 commons.

Com W U B R G C T
6 1 1 4 5 1 12
7 15 14 8 5 14 56
8 9 9 12 13 1 44
9 3 2 4 9
E(R) 7.375 7.333 7.708 7.542 7 6 7.413
sig(R) 0.484 0.553 0.735 0.865 0.798 0.768

And lastly, the basic lands. You will always get seven, with the exception of one rare red theme and the mythic gold theme replacing one basic for an utility land, so 3 packs total. Through these arent’ the only utility lands you’ll see, there’s one blue pack that actually keeps the basic land while adding its utility land, totaling to 9 lands of the 20 cards pack.

1.2 Rarity configurations

Compared to J25’s table, there are less variety in the rare tiers while single mythic get 1 more configuration, certainly because of the utility lands not being here anymore.

What’s more important to know here however is that 1/4/8/7 actually got beaten slightly by 1/5/7/7, and the same story seems to apply with the 2 rares tier, which is where we find our runner ups. There’s certainly a big shift in rarity count. And for that, I decided that the delta column will count both as 0 and further packs can choose whichever path benefits them the most.

Either way you put it, you do see how insane of a swing 7 uncommons really is.

M R U C L D W U B R G C T
1 3 9 7 2- 2 4 6
1 4 8 7 0- 8 8 10 6 32
1 5 7 7 0+ 6 12 4 12 34
1 6 6 7 2+ 4 4
2 3 8 7 2- 2 2
2 4 7 7 2- 8 2 2 2 14
2 4 8 6 2- 2 2
2 5 6 7 2+ 2 8 4 14
1 4 8 7 2- 1 1 1 3
1 5 7 7 2+ 1 1
1 6 6 7 4+ 1 1
1 7 6 6 6+ 1 1
1 1 3 8 7 2- 1 1
1 1 4 7 7 2- 1 1 2
1 1 5 6 7 2+ 2 1 3
1 1 7 4 7 6+ 1 1

2 Cards’ drop rates

2.1 White

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

At the absolute peak of 19 copies, we get Path to Redemption, a Pacifism with a mana sink. This is more copies than Banishing Light and Pacifism got in J25 combined.

At second place of 13 copies, we got a 3 mana 2/3 flier that scries 1. You’ll be meeting these again, and that’s important to note. Third place of 12 copies, a 5 mana 3/5 that can occasionally fly and gain life, but more importantly it has landcycling.

Fourth place of 11 copies, we get a 3/3 and a 1/1 for 4 mana (Friendly reminder that Jumpstart packs don’t include tokens), a 2/2 naturalize on sacrifice, and lastly… an uncommon commander.

Fifth place of 10 copies, we get a 1/2 plus a counter for 2 mana. Trade 1 toughness for flash and turn the counter to its own creature and we get the sixth place of 9 copies, now an uncommon.

You know what, I’m gonna stop here because you probably get the hang by this point. Only one staple prowess managed to get up here and the rest are creatures.

2.2 Blue