Collecting Lorwyn Eclipsed: The Four Most Important Things to Know

I promise a rewrite of the probabilities listed in this article, with no room for rounding errors or waving offs like “less than 1%”

Play Boosters

• 6–7 Commons
  • There are 81 commons from Lorwyn Eclipsed that can appear in these slots.
  • In 1 of 55 Play Boosters, 1 of 20 Special Guests cards will replace a common.

This put a SPG card’s individual drop rate at 1 in 1,100.

• 3 Uncommons
  • There are 100 uncommons from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set that can appear in these slots.
  • There are 10 uncommon fable frame cards that can appear in these slots (10%).

This put an eligible uncommon card a 1 in 3 chance to be upgraded to the showcase frame.

• 1 Wildcard of any rarity

  • A common (18%), uncommon (58%), rare (19%), or mythic rare (2%) card from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set
  • An uncommon (2%), rare (less than 1%), or mythic rare (less than 1%) fable frame card
  • A rare (1%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) borderless nonland card
  • A borderless reversible shock land (less than 1%)

• 1 Rare or mythic rare

  • A rare (78.2%) or mythic rare (13.6%) card from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set
  • A rare (4.6%) or mythic rare (1.2%) fable frame card
  • A rare (less than 1%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) borderless nonland card
  • A borderless reversible shock land (less than 1%)

• 1 Traditional foil card of any rarity

  • A common (60.4%), uncommon (29.8%), rare (6.5%), or mythic rare (1.1%) card from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set
  • An uncommon (1%), rare (1%), or mythic rare (less than 1%) fable frame card
  • A rare (less than 1%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) borderless nonland card
  • A borderless reversible shock land (less than 1%)

• 1 Basic land

  • A non-foil (40%) or traditional foil (10%) default frame basic land
  • A non-foil (40%) or traditional foil (10%) full-art basic land

Each individual vertical art basic land is twice as rare as an individual horizontal art basic land.

Each card has an independent 20% chance to be upgraded to foil.

Collectors’ Boosters

• 5 Traditional foil commons

  • There are 81 commons from Lorwyn Eclipsed that can appear in these slots.

• 4 Traditional foil uncommons

  • There are 100 uncommons from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set that can appear in these slots.
  • There are 10 uncommon fable frame cards that can appear in these slots (36.4%).

This implies that the showcase uncommons are treated as separate cards, which makes the print sheet totals to 110 cards.

• 1 Traditional foil full-art basic land

• 1 Traditional foil rare or mythic rare

  • A rare (85.5%) or mythic rare (14.5%) from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set

• 1 Non-foil Lorwyn Eclipsed Commander (ECC) rare or mythic rare

  • 4 Mythic rare borderless cards (9%)
  • 20 Rare extended-art cards (91%)

Each individual rare (65 of them) is twice as common compared to an individual mythic (which there are 22). It’s really weird these two numbers aren’t spelt out for being barely different from the norm.

• 2 Non-foil Booster Fun rares or mythic rares
  • A rare extended-art card from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set (37.7%)
    • There are 29 extended-art rares from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set.
  • A rare (33.7%) or mythic rare (9.1%) fable frame card
  • A rare (13%) or mythic rare (4.5%) borderless nonland card
  • A borderless reversible shock land (2%)

This part has me really feeling suspicious. The DFC rares seems to have been double printed compared to normal, while the DFC mythics have been short printed to half and the shock lands are about 3.22 times (not sure about the exact number, but it is in this ballpark) rarer than they should have been. Given that uncertainty, let’s assume the 2.0% is exact and separate and we’ll have the following table for the other designs:

• 1 Foil Booster Fun rare or mythic rare card
  • A traditional foil rare extended-art card from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set (30.4%)
    • There are 29 extended-art rares from the Lorwyn Eclipsed main set.
  • A traditional foil rare (27.2%) or mythic rare (7.3%) fable frame card
  • A traditional foil rare (5.2%) or mythic rare (4.2%) borderless nonland card
  • A traditional foil borderless reversible shock land (5.2%)
  • A traditional foil Special Guests card (10.5%)
  • A traditional foil (9%) or fracture foil (1%) Japan Showcase card
    • In Japanese Collector Boosters, Japan Showcase cards will always be in Japanese. In non-Japanese Collector Boosters, Japan Showcase cards will always be in English.
  • A serialized double rainbow foil Bitterbloom Bearer appears in less than 1% of Collector Boosters.
    • Serialized copies of Bitterbloom Bearer can appear in Collector Boosters of any language, but the card will always be in English.

Suddenly, everything turns back to normal here. I honestly don’t know why. Is there anything sinister about the fact that these packs can find more foil showcase shocks than nonfoil?